The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
praise.
Which leads me to a question: how is this envisioned in the world of
consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ? The article
mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
then, is the business plan?
As we've noticed in our several years of being in business, consumer
VoIP users are, for a lack of a better term, fickle. While
facilities-based VoIP has a certain amount of customer retention simply
because it targets home installations, the rest of the consumer VoSP
world seems to see a rather high turnaround of users. It's still
reasonably newer tech, and those who have the knowledge to put it to
good use treat it, rightly, as a commodity. As long as the service is
tolerable and the price is good, they'll jump ship from one VoSP to
another faster than you can send a SIP REGISTER packet.
With this in mind, it seems that cost comes first and foremost, and
service quality second. People jump for cost, but they will stick around
an extra five seconds for quality of service, simply because the other
players out there become an unknown.
But here is Google, pushing VoIP tech (which will almost certainly
integrate into their Google Talk services) to the consumer with all the
trimmings of GrandCentral, plus some of Google's characteristically
flashy, but likely very beta or late alpha services -- all for free.
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.
But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
people bother to use them.
Ideas? Comments? Snide remarks?
N.
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 4:50 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
On Tue, 17 Mar 2009, SIP wrote:
Quote:
The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
praise.
Which leads me to a question: how is this envisioned in the world of
consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ? The article
mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
then, is the business plan?
I'm sure there will be "Pro" features for a monthly fee, or they will make
enough money on International Minutes. They might eventually include
advertising.
There are many things Google offers that don't cost you cash, but they
monetize it. VoIP is making the telephony world a commodity, and it
continues to get cheaper.
Some of the things Google is doing will flow down to us, hopefully that
includes SMS abilities on SIP-delivered originated DIDs. Since Google has
done it, they've set a precedent.
Quote:
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.
Google Voice fits a niche -- people who are willing to give up what has
been their primary number for years and get a new number, and then give
that out to everyone, and hope that in a year or two Google doesn't shut
down this little venture that nobody paid for and nobody seems to be able
to match.
It's not home phone service. It's not a business IVR. It is for the
individual to manage their calls. They don't know it's VoIP, or if they
do, they don't care or don't know what that means. It works for them, and
that's great.
Remember -- there's a company down the street quietly doing $20M annual
revenue for some obscure, I-never-thought-of-that business. We small fry
do NOT compete with Google, we can't. We provide unique services and find
the customers that like and need what we provide, and we do a nice
business for ourselves and our employees (and maybe our investors).
Quote:
But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
people bother to use them.
They will monetize it. Maybe it will be advertising, but maybe it's just
to see how many people sign up and actually use it. I've had my account
for a few years now, but I don't use it. I never was ready to give up
control of my telephony to an unpaid service.
But Google will find a way to monetize Google Voice, directly or
indirectly, or will shutter it like Google Notebook in a few years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter Beckman Internet Guy
beckman@angryox.comhttp://www.angryox.com/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 5:05 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Remember, Bait _then_ switch.
Either they'll find a way to monetize it when enough people are using the
service, or they will shut it down in a few years along with other
unpopular services.
On Tue, 17 Mar 2009, SIP wrote:
Quote:
Date: Tue, 17 Mar 2009 13:26:05 -0400
From: SIP <sip@arcdiv.com>
Reply-To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
<asterisk-biz@lists.digium.com>
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
<asterisk-biz@lists.digium.com>
Subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
praise.
Which leads me to a question: how is this envisioned in the world of
consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ? The article
mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
then, is the business plan?
As we've noticed in our several years of being in business, consumer
VoIP users are, for a lack of a better term, fickle. While
facilities-based VoIP has a certain amount of customer retention simply
because it targets home installations, the rest of the consumer VoSP
world seems to see a rather high turnaround of users. It's still
reasonably newer tech, and those who have the knowledge to put it to
good use treat it, rightly, as a commodity. As long as the service is
tolerable and the price is good, they'll jump ship from one VoSP to
another faster than you can send a SIP REGISTER packet.
With this in mind, it seems that cost comes first and foremost, and
service quality second. People jump for cost, but they will stick around
an extra five seconds for quality of service, simply because the other
players out there become an unknown.
But here is Google, pushing VoIP tech (which will almost certainly
integrate into their Google Talk services) to the consumer with all the
trimmings of GrandCentral, plus some of Google's characteristically
flashy, but likely very beta or late alpha services -- all for free.
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.
But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
people bother to use them.
Ideas? Comments? Snide remarks?
N.
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 5:38 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
--- On Tue, 3/17/09, Peter Beckman <beckman@angryox.com> wrote:
Quote:
Some of the things Google is doing will flow down to us,
hopefully that
includes SMS abilities on SIP-delivered originated DIDs.
Since Google has
done it, they've set a precedent.
I am getting a little excited about this too. If Google can
do it then it means soon so will we. I think this will be the
"killer app" for residential (or mobile rather) VoIP once it
is widespread.
Quote:
But Google will find a way to monetize Google Voice,
directly or
indirectly, or will shutter it like Google Notebook in a
few years.
Agreed. They will either start spamming you with ads - or get
rid of you. There is really no other way for them to make money
off of this. Good PR and nice and all - but it doesn't pay the
bills.
-- Nitzan
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 5:55 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
--- On Tue, 3/17/09, SIP <sip@arcdiv.com> wrote:
Quote:
Where, then, is the business plan?
Grand Central never had one. Google Voice is probably going
to be the more corporate'd cousin and there will have to be
some sort of advertising or charging to get the cash flowing.
They say they'll be selling international calls and that's
going to pay the bills, but I can tell you for a fact it
will not. For starters there is no possible way they could
offer better rates than smaller VoIP providers - and they
don't accept SIP calls anyway. It's going to be a glorified
Calling Card system - and not a particularly cheap one either.
It'll fail miserably in paying the bills IMHO.
Quote:
With this in mind, it seems that cost comes first and
foremost, and service quality second.
Yes and no. People are more than willing to pay a few extra
bucks as long as it's competitive - if they feel they are
getting a good deal and good value overall.
Quote:
But here is Google, pushing VoIP tech
Google Voice is NOT VoIP. There is no way to make a SIP call
through it. To make a free call through GV you'd need to first
call GV to begin with - making it a Calling Card system rather
than a VoIP provider. The simul ring features are nice and all,
but you still need to have some sort of phone service before
you can use it.
I think this is the biggest weakness in GV - it is not going
to be the main communications hub it's glorified to be- simply
because it is *not* a central point of communications.
Sure- people will use it for varying purposes, but the way it
is built by definition prevents it from being your MAIN phone
solution, which in essence makes it a niche product at best.
Is it innovative? maybe. Is it cool? sure. Is it game-changing?
absolutely not.
Quote:
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive
brand recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the
non-facilities-based consumer voice products out there will
stand up to it.
Why? GV doesn't even compete with a regular VoIP provider
directly - they don't offer SIP and you can't hook up anything
to GV, let alone an adapter or IP phone.
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 6:10 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Nitzan Kon wrote:
Quote:
--- On Tue, 3/17/09, SIP <sip@arcdiv.com> wrote:
> Where, then, is the business plan?
>
Grand Central never had one. Google Voice is probably going
to be the more corporate'd cousin and there will have to be
some sort of advertising or charging to get the cash flowing.
They say they'll be selling international calls and that's
going to pay the bills, but I can tell you for a fact it
will not. For starters there is no possible way they could
offer better rates than smaller VoIP providers - and they
don't accept SIP calls anyway. It's going to be a glorified
Calling Card system - and not a particularly cheap one either.
It'll fail miserably in paying the bills IMHO.
GrandCentral's plan from the get-go was, I think, to get bought.
Everything about their service screamed "we've no idea how to monetise
this, so we're hoping someone buys us before we fail." That is not,
actually, an uncommon business plan.
Quote:
> With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive
> brand recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the
> non-facilities-based consumer voice products out there will
> stand up to it.
>
Why? GV doesn't even compete with a regular VoIP provider
directly - they don't offer SIP and you can't hook up anything
to GV, let alone an adapter or IP phone.
See... I'm picturing Google meshing this with Google Talk, which DOES do
VoIP. It would be silly for them NOT to mesh the two products together,
and likely trivial to do. I'm guessing we just haven't seen that bit yet.
N.
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 6:26 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
--- On Tue, 3/17/09, SIP <sip@arcdiv.com> wrote:
Quote:
See... I'm picturing Google meshing this with Google
Talk, which DOES do VoIP. It would be silly for them NOT to
mesh the two products together, and likely trivial to do.
I'm guessing we just haven't seen that bit yet.
So.... who's going to pay the bill? a neat calling card system
is one thing (read: pennies on the dollar) - but a full on
phone service for free is something even Google can't finance
for long. They'd need to charge to make any sort of profit
out of this. It'll just turn into a Skype Call-Out copycat.
Working? sure. But it's still not a niche.
IMHO there is absolutely no way advertisements will pay the
bill. This isn't email where it costs a whopping dollar to
service a customer for a year - PSTN calls have a very real
price, and it's not nearly low enough for a non-paid model
to work... yet.
-- Nitzan
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 6:37 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Nitzan Kon wrote:
Quote:
--- On Tue, 3/17/09, SIP <sip@arcdiv.com> wrote:
> See... I'm picturing Google meshing this with Google
> Talk, which DOES do VoIP. It would be silly for them NOT to
> mesh the two products together, and likely trivial to do.
> I'm guessing we just haven't seen that bit yet.
>
So.... who's going to pay the bill? a neat calling card system
is one thing (read: pennies on the dollar) - but a full on
phone service for free is something even Google can't finance
for long. They'd need to charge to make any sort of profit
out of this. It'll just turn into a Skype Call-Out copycat.
Working? sure. But it's still not a niche.
IMHO there is absolutely no way advertisements will pay the
bill. This isn't email where it costs a whopping dollar to
service a customer for a year - PSTN calls have a very real
price, and it's not nearly low enough for a non-paid model
to work... yet.
That's what I want to know. I don't see it possible to sustain the
current business model, which leads me to believe this is simply the
start of things, and it will change as time progresses. What they say is
the business model NOW is not what it will look like a year down the road.
We'll see. Should be interesting to watch.
N.
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:06 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Sorry for top posting.
Yeah even I have been thinking as to how long a company survive on a
business model such as google or even for that matter $19/month
unlimited us,ca,uk landline etc (vonage style)
Vonage style also needs a substantial user base which needs run into
few millions before they want to start seeing profits, their
termination vendors would be charging them something for sure for
every call, no matter how big the volume would be, coz termination
vendors main source of income percentage wise is still Voice (although
VAS does contribute to their bottom line but not more then 25%-40% )
So its surely is something to wait and watch ( some time back skype
was also offering unlimited free calls into US/CA, I don't till how
long they were able to sustain)
Interesting thread and we shall see a lot of insights from different
people, having benefits for all community members for sure.
Regards,
Mitul Limbani,
Founder & CEO,
Enterux Solutions Pvt Ltd,
The Enterprise Linux Company(r),
http://www.enterux.com/
On 18-Mar-09, at 1:03, SIP <sip@arcdiv.com> wrote:
Quote:
Nitzan Kon wrote:
> --- On Tue, 3/17/09, SIP <sip@arcdiv.com> wrote:
>
>
>> See... I'm picturing Google meshing this with Google
>> Talk, which DOES do VoIP. It would be silly for them NOT to
>> mesh the two products together, and likely trivial to do.
>> I'm guessing we just haven't seen that bit yet.
>>
>
> So.... who's going to pay the bill? a neat calling card system
> is one thing (read: pennies on the dollar) - but a full on
> phone service for free is something even Google can't finance
> for long. They'd need to charge to make any sort of profit
> out of this. It'll just turn into a Skype Call-Out copycat.
> Working? sure. But it's still not a niche.
>
> IMHO there is absolutely no way advertisements will pay the
> bill. This isn't email where it costs a whopping dollar to
> service a customer for a year - PSTN calls have a very real
> price, and it's not nearly low enough for a non-paid model
> to work... yet.
>
>
That's what I want to know. I don't see it possible to sustain the
current business model, which leads me to believe this is simply the
start of things, and it will change as time progresses. What they
say is
the business model NOW is not what it will look like a year down the
road.
We'll see. Should be interesting to watch.
N.
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:22 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Google voice is not a business. It's a feature of a greater offering that may or may not come.
You have to look at Google voice in the context of what Google is - an advertising company that wants to be a commerce company. To think that Google has ambitions past bolstering and or protecting their main income streams (ads) is far fetched at best.
In order for Google to continue to drive ad revenues they need more advertisers. To do this they need to make it easier to create something that requires advertising (I.E. an online business).
Slowly but surely Google is piecing together all of the components an entrepreneur or existing offline business needs to do business online. Sort of what eBay tried to do (but is failing at with) PayPal and Skype.
Google offers a way to make a site (Sites), optimize it for search (Site optimizer, webmaster tools), advertise it (Adwords, Ad manager), track performance (Analytics) and take payments (Google checkout). Now sprinkle in hosted productivity and collaboration products like Google docs, and way to communicate (Google Voice, Google talk) you've got all of need to launch a basic business online.
Today these all look like disparate offerings, but when put together they actually fit together well.
Can Google execute on this? Don't know. That's their problem.
But don't expect them to be a VoIP/voice provider in any traditional sense.
Worse case they'll use Google voice as a way to cover the black hole created by online leads that are converted offline. Like what Ifbyphone is doing with their call tracking services (http://public.ifbyphone.com/services/call-tracking).
It's a big problem for many marketers. Many of which would spend more if they new where all of their revenues were coming from.
Have I exceeded your expectations? Please share your experience with my boss, Benjamin Sayers, CEO
NOTICE: The information contained in this email and any document attached hereto is intended only for the named recipient(s). It is the property of the VoIP Supply, LLC and shall not be used, disclosed or reproduced without the express written consent of VoIP Supply, LLC. If you are not the intended recipient, nor the employee or agent responsible for delivering this message in confidence to the intended recipient(s), you are hereby notified that you have received this transmittal in error, and any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this transmittal or its attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this transmittal and/or attachments in error, please notify me immediately by reply e-mail or telephone and then delete this message, including any attachments. Our mailing address is 454 Sonwil Drive, Buffalo, NY 14225 USA.
-----Original Message-----
From: asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com [mailto:asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com] On Behalf Of Peter Beckman
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 1:46 PM
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
Subject: Re: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
On Tue, 17 Mar 2009, SIP wrote:
Quote:
The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
praise.
Which leads me to a question: how is this envisioned in the world of
consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ? The article
mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
then, is the business plan?
I'm sure there will be "Pro" features for a monthly fee, or they will make
enough money on International Minutes. They might eventually include
advertising.
There are many things Google offers that don't cost you cash, but they
monetize it. VoIP is making the telephony world a commodity, and it
continues to get cheaper.
Some of the things Google is doing will flow down to us, hopefully that
includes SMS abilities on SIP-delivered originated DIDs. Since Google has
done it, they've set a precedent.
Quote:
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.
Google Voice fits a niche -- people who are willing to give up what has
been their primary number for years and get a new number, and then give
that out to everyone, and hope that in a year or two Google doesn't shut
down this little venture that nobody paid for and nobody seems to be able
to match.
It's not home phone service. It's not a business IVR. It is for the
individual to manage their calls. They don't know it's VoIP, or if they
do, they don't care or don't know what that means. It works for them, and
that's great.
Remember -- there's a company down the street quietly doing $20M annual
revenue for some obscure, I-never-thought-of-that business. We small fry
do NOT compete with Google, we can't. We provide unique services and find
the customers that like and need what we provide, and we do a nice
business for ourselves and our employees (and maybe our investors).
Quote:
But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
people bother to use them.
They will monetize it. Maybe it will be advertising, but maybe it's just
to see how many people sign up and actually use it. I've had my account
for a few years now, but I don't use it. I never was ready to give up
control of my telephony to an unpaid service.
But Google will find a way to monetize Google Voice, directly or
indirectly, or will shutter it like Google Notebook in a few years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter Beckman Internet Guy
beckman@angryox.comhttp://www.angryox.com/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:46 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
I think we're overcomplicating things here.
All they have to do is use their voice recognition software (you know, the one that we all train for free when we call 800-goog-411) to do basic transcription, and low and behold they have marketable data. Just like advertisers want to know what we do online, they will want to know what we walk about on the phone once that data is available.
Advertisers would pay an arm and a leg to know every time someone mentioned their product on the phone and in what context they mentioned it...
--Dave
-----Original Message-----
From: asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com [mailto:asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com] On Behalf Of Garrett Smith
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 4:19 PM
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
Subject: Re: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Google voice is not a business. It's a feature of a greater offering that may or may not come.
You have to look at Google voice in the context of what Google is - an advertising company that wants to be a commerce company. To think that Google has ambitions past bolstering and or protecting their main income streams (ads) is far fetched at best.
In order for Google to continue to drive ad revenues they need more advertisers. To do this they need to make it easier to create something that requires advertising (I.E. an online business).
Slowly but surely Google is piecing together all of the components an entrepreneur or existing offline business needs to do business online. Sort of what eBay tried to do (but is failing at with) PayPal and Skype.
Google offers a way to make a site (Sites), optimize it for search (Site optimizer, webmaster tools), advertise it (Adwords, Ad manager), track performance (Analytics) and take payments (Google checkout). Now sprinkle in hosted productivity and collaboration products like Google docs, and way to communicate (Google Voice, Google talk) you've got all of need to launch a basic business online.
Today these all look like disparate offerings, but when put together they actually fit together well.
Can Google execute on this? Don't know. That's their problem.
But don't expect them to be a VoIP/voice provider in any traditional sense.
Worse case they'll use Google voice as a way to cover the black hole created by online leads that are converted offline. Like what Ifbyphone is doing with their call tracking services (http://public.ifbyphone.com/services/call-tracking).
It's a big problem for many marketers. Many of which would spend more if they new where all of their revenues were coming from.
Have I exceeded your expectations? Please share your experience with my boss, Benjamin Sayers, CEO
NOTICE: The information contained in this email and any document attached hereto is intended only for the named recipient(s). It is the property of the VoIP Supply, LLC and shall not be used, disclosed or reproduced without the express written consent of VoIP Supply, LLC. If you are not the intended recipient, nor the employee or agent responsible for delivering this message in confidence to the intended recipient(s), you are hereby notified that you have received this transmittal in error, and any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this transmittal or its attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this transmittal and/or attachments in error, please notify me immediately by reply e-mail or telephone and then delete this message, including any attachments. Our mailing address is 454 Sonwil Drive, Buffalo, NY 14225 USA.
-----Original Message-----
From: asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com [mailto:asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com] On Behalf Of Peter Beckman
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 1:46 PM
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
Subject: Re: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
On Tue, 17 Mar 2009, SIP wrote:
Quote:
The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
praise.
Which leads me to a question: how is this envisioned in the world of
consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ? The article
mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
then, is the business plan?
I'm sure there will be "Pro" features for a monthly fee, or they will make
enough money on International Minutes. They might eventually include
advertising.
There are many things Google offers that don't cost you cash, but they
monetize it. VoIP is making the telephony world a commodity, and it
continues to get cheaper.
Some of the things Google is doing will flow down to us, hopefully that
includes SMS abilities on SIP-delivered originated DIDs. Since Google has
done it, they've set a precedent.
Quote:
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.
Google Voice fits a niche -- people who are willing to give up what has
been their primary number for years and get a new number, and then give
that out to everyone, and hope that in a year or two Google doesn't shut
down this little venture that nobody paid for and nobody seems to be able
to match.
It's not home phone service. It's not a business IVR. It is for the
individual to manage their calls. They don't know it's VoIP, or if they
do, they don't care or don't know what that means. It works for them, and
that's great.
Remember -- there's a company down the street quietly doing $20M annual
revenue for some obscure, I-never-thought-of-that business. We small fry
do NOT compete with Google, we can't. We provide unique services and find
the customers that like and need what we provide, and we do a nice
business for ourselves and our employees (and maybe our investors).
Quote:
But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
people bother to use them.
They will monetize it. Maybe it will be advertising, but maybe it's just
to see how many people sign up and actually use it. I've had my account
for a few years now, but I don't use it. I never was ready to give up
control of my telephony to an unpaid service.
But Google will find a way to monetize Google Voice, directly or
indirectly, or will shutter it like Google Notebook in a few years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter Beckman Internet Guy
beckman@angryox.comhttp://www.angryox.com/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:51 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
I forgot to mention: as the number of users on this service increases, google's actual cost actually DECREASES, because they don't have to put calls back out onto the PSTN as users of the service call each other.
It's the same reason that the amount of storage on gmail keeps increasing at such an astronomical rate. Google only has to store one copy of each email, so as users forward that email to 1000 other gmail users, google still only has one copy in its database. It's an incredible model when you really think about it: where else does overhead decrease as usage increases? I'm sure they're installing new hard drives, but not nearly at the rate it would appear they are based on the increasing number on gmail's homepage.
--Dave
-----Original Message-----
From: asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com [mailto:asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com] On Behalf Of Garrett Smith
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 4:19 PM
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
Subject: Re: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Google voice is not a business. It's a feature of a greater offering that may or may not come.
You have to look at Google voice in the context of what Google is - an advertising company that wants to be a commerce company. To think that Google has ambitions past bolstering and or protecting their main income streams (ads) is far fetched at best.
In order for Google to continue to drive ad revenues they need more advertisers. To do this they need to make it easier to create something that requires advertising (I.E. an online business).
Slowly but surely Google is piecing together all of the components an entrepreneur or existing offline business needs to do business online. Sort of what eBay tried to do (but is failing at with) PayPal and Skype.
Google offers a way to make a site (Sites), optimize it for search (Site optimizer, webmaster tools), advertise it (Adwords, Ad manager), track performance (Analytics) and take payments (Google checkout). Now sprinkle in hosted productivity and collaboration products like Google docs, and way to communicate (Google Voice, Google talk) you've got all of need to launch a basic business online.
Today these all look like disparate offerings, but when put together they actually fit together well.
Can Google execute on this? Don't know. That's their problem.
But don't expect them to be a VoIP/voice provider in any traditional sense.
Worse case they'll use Google voice as a way to cover the black hole created by online leads that are converted offline. Like what Ifbyphone is doing with their call tracking services (http://public.ifbyphone.com/services/call-tracking).
It's a big problem for many marketers. Many of which would spend more if they new where all of their revenues were coming from.
Have I exceeded your expectations? Please share your experience with my boss, Benjamin Sayers, CEO
NOTICE: The information contained in this email and any document attached hereto is intended only for the named recipient(s). It is the property of the VoIP Supply, LLC and shall not be used, disclosed or reproduced without the express written consent of VoIP Supply, LLC. If you are not the intended recipient, nor the employee or agent responsible for delivering this message in confidence to the intended recipient(s), you are hereby notified that you have received this transmittal in error, and any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this transmittal or its attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this transmittal and/or attachments in error, please notify me immediately by reply e-mail or telephone and then delete this message, including any attachments. Our mailing address is 454 Sonwil Drive, Buffalo, NY 14225 USA.
-----Original Message-----
From: asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com [mailto:asterisk-biz-bounces@lists.digium.com] On Behalf Of Peter Beckman
Sent: Tuesday, March 17, 2009 1:46 PM
To: Commercial and Business-Oriented Asterisk Discussion
Subject: Re: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
On Tue, 17 Mar 2009, SIP wrote:
Quote:
The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
praise.
Which leads me to a question: how is this envisioned in the world of
consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ? The article
mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
then, is the business plan?
I'm sure there will be "Pro" features for a monthly fee, or they will make
enough money on International Minutes. They might eventually include
advertising.
There are many things Google offers that don't cost you cash, but they
monetize it. VoIP is making the telephony world a commodity, and it
continues to get cheaper.
Some of the things Google is doing will flow down to us, hopefully that
includes SMS abilities on SIP-delivered originated DIDs. Since Google has
done it, they've set a precedent.
Quote:
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.
Google Voice fits a niche -- people who are willing to give up what has
been their primary number for years and get a new number, and then give
that out to everyone, and hope that in a year or two Google doesn't shut
down this little venture that nobody paid for and nobody seems to be able
to match.
It's not home phone service. It's not a business IVR. It is for the
individual to manage their calls. They don't know it's VoIP, or if they
do, they don't care or don't know what that means. It works for them, and
that's great.
Remember -- there's a company down the street quietly doing $20M annual
revenue for some obscure, I-never-thought-of-that business. We small fry
do NOT compete with Google, we can't. We provide unique services and find
the customers that like and need what we provide, and we do a nice
business for ourselves and our employees (and maybe our investors).
Quote:
But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
people bother to use them.
They will monetize it. Maybe it will be advertising, but maybe it's just
to see how many people sign up and actually use it. I've had my account
for a few years now, but I don't use it. I never was ready to give up
control of my telephony to an unpaid service.
But Google will find a way to monetize Google Voice, directly or
indirectly, or will shutter it like Google Notebook in a few years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter Beckman Internet Guy
beckman@angryox.comhttp://www.angryox.com/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:55 pm Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
Great Point!
On Tue, Mar 17, 2009 at 3:42 PM, David Gibbons <dave@videon-central.com (dave@videon-central.com)> wrote:
Quote:
I think we're overcomplicating things here.
All they have to do is use their voice recognition software (you know, the one that we all train for free when we call 800-goog-411) to do basic transcription, and low and behold they have marketable data. Just like advertisers want to know what we do online, they will want to know what we walk about on the phone once that data is available.
Advertisers would pay an arm and a leg to know every time someone mentioned their product on the phone and in what context they mentioned it...
Google voice is not a business. It's a feature of a greater offering that may or may not come.
You have to look at Google voice in the context of what Google is - an advertising company that wants to be a commerce company. To think that Google has ambitions past bolstering and or protecting their main income streams (ads) is far fetched at best.
In order for Google to continue to drive ad revenues they need more advertisers. To do this they need to make it easier to create something that requires advertising (I.E. an online business).
Slowly but surely Google is piecing together all of the components an entrepreneur or existing offline business needs to do business online. Sort of what eBay tried to do (but is failing at with) PayPal and Skype.
Google offers a way to make a site (Sites), optimize it for search (Site optimizer, webmaster tools), advertise it (Adwords, Ad manager), track performance (Analytics) and take payments (Google checkout). Now sprinkle in hosted productivity and collaboration products like Google docs, and way to communicate (Google Voice, Google talk) you've got all of need to launch a basic business online.
Today these all look like disparate offerings, but when put together they actually fit together well.
Can Google execute on this? Don't know. That's their problem.
But don't expect them to be a VoIP/voice provider in any traditional sense.
Worse case they'll use Google voice as a way to cover the black hole created by online leads that are converted offline. Like what Ifbyphone is doing with their call tracking services (http://public.ifbyphone.com/services/call-tracking).
It's a big problem for many marketers. Many of which would spend more if they new where all of their revenues were coming from.
Have I exceeded your expectations? Please share your experience with my boss, Benjamin Sayers, CEO
NOTICE: The information contained in this email and any document attached hereto is intended only for the named recipient(s). It is the property of the VoIP Supply, LLC and shall not be used, disclosed or reproduced without the express written consent of VoIP Supply, LLC. If you are not the intended recipient, nor the employee or agent responsible for delivering this message in confidence to the intended recipient(s), you are hereby notified that you have received this transmittal in error, and any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this transmittal or its attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this transmittal and/or attachments in error, please notify me immediately by reply e-mail or telephone and then delete this message, including any attachments. Our mailing address is 454 Sonwil Drive, Buffalo, NY 14225 USA.
The Pogue article is, as to be expected, gushingly lavish with Google
> praise.
Quote:
Which leads me to a question: how is this envisioned in the world of
consumer VoIP (is anyone even still IN that business) ? The article
mentions that the entire service, single number, VoIP calling,
> transcription services, etc. will be completely free and ad-free. Where,
Quote:
then, is the business plan?
I'm sure there will be "Pro" features for a monthly fee, or they will make
enough money on International Minutes. They might eventually include
advertising.
There are many things Google offers that don't cost you cash, but they
monetize it. VoIP is making the telephony world a commodity, and it
continues to get cheaper.
Some of the things Google is doing will flow down to us, hopefully that
includes SMS abilities on SIP-delivered originated DIDs. Since Google has
done it, they've set a precedent.
Quote:
With its constant marketing steamroller, and its massive brand
recognition, I don't see, honestly, how 95% of the non-facilities-based
> consumer voice products out there will stand up to it.
Google Voice fits a niche -- people who are willing to give up what has
been their primary number for years and get a new number, and then give
that out to everyone, and hope that in a year or two Google doesn't shut
down this little venture that nobody paid for and nobody seems to be able
to match.
It's not home phone service. It's not a business IVR. It is for the
individual to manage their calls. They don't know it's VoIP, or if they
do, they don't care or don't know what that means. It works for them, and
that's great.
Remember -- there's a company down the street quietly doing $20M annual
revenue for some obscure, I-never-thought-of-that business. We small fry
do NOT compete with Google, we can't. We provide unique services and find
the customers that like and need what we provide, and we do a nice
business for ourselves and our employees (and maybe our investors).
Quote:
But how long will it be the way it is now -- free of charge for basic
services and ad-free? Is this a first salvo to slaughter the competition
as cleanly as possible before the shift in business models? I don't see
> how even Google could sustain a product of this complexity and sheer
Quote:
cost without SOME method of making that cost back, and if common models
of free to pay business marketing have taught us anything, it's that you
> can't build a sustainable business model around a service which is
Quote:
primarily free except for a few bits and pieces that might cost if
people bother to use them.
They will monetize it. Maybe it will be advertising, but maybe it's just
to see how many people sign up and actually use it. I've had my account
for a few years now, but I don't use it. I never was ready to give up
control of my telephony to an unpaid service.
But Google will find a way to monetize Google Voice, directly or
indirectly, or will shutter it like Google Notebook in a few years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Peter Beckman Internet Guy
beckman@angryox.com (beckman@angryox.com) http://www.angryox.com/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________
--Bandwidth and Colocation Provided by http://www.api-digital.com--
Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2009 9:35 am Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
If I was a mobile operator, this would worry me because it's (another) assault on my roaming margins - you can get GSM prepaid minutes of use for dirt cheap pretty much everywhere, but the main barrier to using them is that you need to get everyone who might call you to use the right number. Now, you can hook up any random SIM as the access side and receive calls on your global number.
The flip of this is that better voice products aren't necessarily inimical to telcos - in so far as they cause people to talk, they generate billable minutes.
Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2009 1:30 am Post subject: [asterisk-biz] Google's voice product [OT]
On Mar 17, 2009, at 1:42 PM, David Gibbons wrote:
Quote:
I think we're overcomplicating things here.
All they have to do is use their voice recognition software (you
know, the one that we all train for free when we call 800-goog-411)
to do basic transcription, and low and behold they have marketable
data. Just like advertisers want to know what we do online, they
will want to know what we walk about on the phone once that data is
available.
Advertisers would pay an arm and a leg to know every time someone
mentioned their product on the phone and in what context they
mentioned it...
--Dave
[snip]
I would agree on this point, and think it is core to the whole Google
move into voice.
Google is first and foremost a search company. They provide
ubiquitous access to knowledge, and allow certain parties to influence
the results in a manner that favorably presents the products of those
parties based on context of the search. ("influence" means "present
ads along side of" in this setting.)
Currently Google is missing out on several huge areas in which to
assert their influence of knowledge. Print media is one, but the lack
of interactivity there means it's a dead end (though they are busily
scanning books, though perhaps nobody cares to read any longer.) TV
is another, but they've not done so well there, either, because they
were asserting just their placement model and not the fundamental
attraction of the content itself, and also they have no ability to
ensure good placement even with what they've got. (YouTube is the
counter to this, where they've marshaled the content and done very
well with ad placements.) Personal music devices is one place they
haven't been (see below). Person-to-person conversation is the one
that they're notably lacking as well. I suspect GoogleVoice is the
first tentative step into the person-to-person stream of data.
If they could insert themselves into the audio stream of
conversations, they would gather an impressive volume of data that
could be used even in an anonymous fashion. While there may be
resistance to a whispering voice on my calls pitching adjustable
mortgages, I suspect that there will be less objection to "aggregate"
intercepts if the exchange is free voice communication or other
feature set that is fashionable. Personal identification may not even
be required to make this data valuable - it is almost as useful to a
marketer for them to know that 28 year old women in San Francisco with
an income level of more than $100,000 and who is a commuter and who
happens to have mentioned that she thinks that the new Lexus model is
a bit too expensive this year.
Android is the next-best thing to being inserted in the communications
channel, as it provides ubiquity of access. I don't think they'll
replace Apple for a while, but I suspect that Android-based devices
will eventually take over the market because of the open
capabilities. I also expect that Android on mobile phones is step one
of a several-segment process, of which Google may only be partially
aware. The extension of Android into consumer-grade reality
augmentation devices (audio, layered heads-up-displays) is where the
value becomes staggering for advertising and knowledge influence
potential. But first, people need to want to carry "version 1"
Android devices around and get used to trading privacy for
convenience. Wait 5-10 years, and we'll see what's happening on that
front. We won't see this type of interception for a few years, at
best - the technology isn't scaleable enough yet, nor are people
comfortable with the concept... yet.
What I hope continues to be the case is that there is the ability to
opt out of interception and parsing, as Google has done with some of
their other products. However, most people simply don't care about
that issue as long as there is some prize you hold out for them.
Google currently has a decent prize - very good search capabilities.
However, I've seen people willing to trade their privacy for far, far
less and I expect that Google will continue to find a good revenue
margin between those who are willing to pay for influence and those
that are willing to be influenced. I don't lament Google that
business - it's clearly what people want.
In summary: Google has many reasons to want to be in the voice
business, and none of them have anything to do with minutes or call
revenues.
PS: It is inevitable, though perhaps in a slow fashion, that Google
Voice will envelop services delivered via Android as well as
communications channels delivered via GoogleTalk.
PPS: This will all eventually come down to a very, very nasty battle
over spectrum since that ultimately dictates who gets to control the
influence on the ears/eyes of the user. The first salvo has been
fired with the white space auctions of last year.
PPPS: Sorry about the Asterisk diversion here. I just happen to have
done a lot of thinking on these topics. This is actually relevant to
Asterisk, I believe. Asterisk will continue to be the toolkit for
integrating businesses into Google voice services in many instances -
I anxiously await a more open API for Google Voice. (i.e.: analog
interfaces, IT integration, fax, IVR mappings, Skype, call queues,
etc. are probably best done in Asterisk even if Google starts to look
more like an alternate last-mile or last-foot data delivery channel.)
JT
---
John Todd email:jtodd@digium.com
Digium, Inc. | Asterisk Open Source Community Director
445 Jan Davis Drive NW - Huntsville AL 35806 - USA
direct: +1-256-428-6083 http://www.digium.com/
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